PDC Top 32 Win % vs Ranking

A recent blog entry I wrote highlighted the win % of PDC top 16 ranked players and compared their record over previous seasons. The results were very interesting and if you haven’t read it yet you can find it under ‘PDC Top 16 – Who is finding form or fading out?’

Having completed that research I decided to find out which players have been getting wins against top ranked players and which players have struggled against players lower down the rankings. Are there any players who have steamrollered players outside the top 16 or 32 but have been unable to turn over the players in the top 32?

For this research I took the current top 32 ranked players in the PDC order of merit and analysed their matches against:
Players currently ranked in the top 16.
Players currently ranked in the top 32.
Players currently ranked outside the top 32.

Note: All the figures in this blog are from PDC ranking tournaments only.

Firstly here’s the 2015 win % of the current top 32 players against players ranked 1-16 in the PDC order of merit.

Win % vs Top 16

Next up vs players ranked 1 to 32 in the PDC order of merit….

Win % vs Top 32

And now the win %’s vs players ranked outside the top 32 in the PDC order of merit…

Win % vs Players Outside Top 32

It may be no surprise to see van Gerwen with such impressive win percentages against all three categories but the distance in % at the top of the wins vs top 16 and top 32 is in particular worth admiring. Adrian Lewis and James Wade both in the top four of each of the charts shows the level of consistency they have had on the tour.

I dissected the results even further to show the win percentages against:
Players ranked in the top 8.
Players ranked 9 to 16.
Players ranked 17 to 32
Players ranked 33 to 50
Players ranked outside the top 50.

Having done that I then decided to assess how the players performed against the same opponents in the 2014 season to see any differences. I think the results make for very interesting reading.

The charts are split into two with the players ranked 1-16 first and then players ranked 17-32.

Don’t forget to click on the chart to enlarge it if it is showing too small on your screen.

PDC Top 16 - Win % vs Ranking

Here are some of my observations from the top 8 ranked players.

van Gerwen has improved in most categories from 2014. Notably upping his win record against players ranked in the top 8 and players ranked from 17-32. Whatever way you look at it his record in 2015 deserves admiring.

Anderson has struggled to match the consistency he showed on tour last season, perhaps due to not playing as many events. It is worth noting the fall in win % against players in the top 8, 16 and 32 significantly lower than his 2014 record.

Taylor has improved his record against players ranked outside the top 32 so less likely to be involved in big shock results but his record against players inside the top 32 has fallen from 2014.

Peter Wright’s performances against players in the top 8 have been below the levels of 2014. He has increased his wins against players ranked outside the top 16 but perhaps concerning for Wright is his overall record against players outside the top 32.

The most significant stat for Lewis is his record against players ranked in the top 8 and players ranked 9 to 16. His results against the top 8 players in 2014 were well below what they should be and in fact were the lowest out of any of the top 16. He has increased this significantly.

Wade has managed a steady increase in his win % against the top 16, 32 and players outside the top 32. Though his results against the top 8 have slipped from 2014.

Thornton has increased his win % overall against the top 16 but results against the top 8 have fallen. Most significant for him though is the drop in wins against players outside the top 32, his numbers in 2014 in that section were amongst the best but now they have declined.

Michael Smith has improved on his record against top 16 players since 2014 but he has shown a decline against players ranked outside the top 32.

There are plenty more points to note for the rest of the players, including the decline in Whitlock’s results against top ranked players since 2014, a worrying fall for Dolan and Jenkins against players ranked outside the top 32. Huybrechts has seen his overall results against the top players worsen from 2014 as has van Barneveld.

The final chart shows the win % in 2014 and 2015 of players ranked 17 to 32 in the PDC order of merit.

PDC 17-33 - Win % vs Ranking

Again there is plenty to pick out of the chart with certain players struggling to get wins against top ranked players but faring well against lower ranked players. Some have seen their win % against players ranked outside the top 32 fall badly. Does this reflect on the growing talent outside the top 32? With players such as Kyle Anderson, Gerwyn Price, Cristo Reyes, Devon Petersen, Max Hopp, Rowby John Rodriguez, Alan Norris, and James Wilson all potentially capable of getting into the top 32 you would think.

I hope you enjoy reading and studying the charts as much as I did!

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